On Agent-Based Modelling of Large Scale Conict Against a Central Authority: From Mechanisms to Complex Behaviour
General Material Designation
[Thesis]
First Statement of Responsibility
Carlos Miguel Reis Silva de Oliveira e Lemos
.PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC
Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.
ISCTE - Instituto Universitario de Lisboa (Portugal)
Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.
2016
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item
227
NOTES PERTAINING TO PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Text of Note
Place of publication: United States, Ann Arbor; ISBN=9781083636867
DISSERTATION (THESIS) NOTE
Dissertation or thesis details and type of degree
Ph.D.
Body granting the degree
ISCTE - Instituto Universitario de Lisboa (Portugal)
Text preceding or following the note
2016
SUMMARY OR ABSTRACT
Text of Note
In this work, an Agent-Based model of large scale conflict against a central authority was developed. The model proposed herein is an extension of Epstein's Agent-Based model of civil violence, in which new mechanisms such as deprivation-dependent hardship, generalised vanishing of the risk perception (`massive fear loss') below a critical ratio between deterrence and `group support', legitimacy feedback, network influences and `mass enthusiasm' (contagion) were implemented. The model was explored a set of computer experiments and the results compared with statistical analyses of events in the 'Arab Spring'. The main contributions of the present work for understanding how mechanisms of large scale conflict lead to complex behaviour were (i ) a quantitative description of the impact of the \Arab Spring' in several countries focused on complexity issues such as peaceful vs violent, spontaneous vs organized, and patterns of size, duration and recurrence of conflict events; (ii ) the explanation of the relationship between the estimated arrest probability and the size of rebellion peaks in Epstein's model; (iii ) a new form of the estimated arrest probability with a mechanism of `massive fear loss'; (iv ) the derivation of a relationship between the legitimacy and action threshold for complex solutions to occur with both low and high values of the legitimacy; (v) a simple representation of political vs economic deprivation with a parameter which controls the `sensitivity' to value; (vi ) the effect of legitimacy feedback; and (vii ) the effect of network influences on the stability of the solutions.
TOPICAL NAME USED AS SUBJECT
Information Technology
UNCONTROLLED SUBJECT TERMS
Subject Term
(UMI)AAI10643891;Applied sciences;Social conflict
PERSONAL NAME - PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY
Farrukh, Maaha
CORPORATE BODY NAME - SECONDARY RESPONSIBILITY
ISCTE - Instituto Universitario de Lisboa (Portugal)