عنوان
پدید آورنده
موضوع
رده
کتابخانه
محل استقرار
A909
انگلیسی
The Recent Global Crisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory
/ Tessaleno C. Devezas
In this paper it is presented the secular unfolding of four economics-related agents, which when considered as a whole allow comprehending what happened in the past in the global economy and shed some light about possible future trajectories. The four agents considered are: world population, its global output (GDP), gold price and the Dow Jones index. The joint action of these actors, in despite of being only a part of the whole, might be seen as a good depiction of the great piece representing the world economic realm. The application of analytical tools such as spectral analysis, moving averages, and logistic curves on time series data about the historical unfolding of these actors allows the demonstration that the recent global crisis seems to be a mix of a self-correction mechanism that brought the global output back to its original learning natural growth pattern, and that it carries also signals of an imminent transition to a new world economic order. Moreover, it is pointed out that fingerprints of Kondratieff long waves are ubiquitous in all observed time-series used in this research and it is demonstrated that the present decade will be probably one of worldwide economic expansion, corresponding to the second half of the expansion phase of the fifth K-wave.
Journal of Globalization Studies
, Vol. 3 No. 2
, November 2012
: P. 26-58
economics
long waves
world GDP
economic recessions
gold price
Devezas, Tessaleno C.
ایران
Globalization
A909.pdf
AL
249952
Y
