George Mason University: United States -- Virginia
: 2008
367 pages
Ph.D.
, George Mason University: United States -- Virginia
The confluence of globalization, terrorism and biotechnology presents a very real and dangerous threat to humankind. Each component individually is experiencing unprecedented -- really exponential -- growth and when examined collectively, they present a potentially serious challenge to our U.S. national security as well as to our scientific, organizational and cultural systems.We are living in a world in which civilizations, nations and peoples are increasingly connecting, mixing and clashing. The catalyst for these increased interactions is globalization resulting from advances in communications, transportation and information technologies. Today, goods, services and peoples traverse great distances and connect, even cross national borders, with increasing regularity. Events occurring half way around the world can and do have great impact on our daily lives. Physical distance as a measure has lost much relevance and has been replaced with virtual proximity. We know more about the world and about each other than at any time in history.This increasing connectedness has contributed greatly to improvements in the quality of life for many, but it has also served to expose seams and highlight the vast differences in standards of living throughout the world. One of the by-products has been the rise of different type of global conflict beginning in the 1970s - a "new wave" of terrorism -- which has become increasingly violent and increasingly transnational. The Africa embassy bombings, the 9/11 terrorists attacks against the United States and the London and Madrid train bombings provide ample evidence of these new and disturbing trends.As with globalization and terrorism, biotechnology is also experiencing great change. In fact in this field, change is arguably more dramatic as many key technologies are experiencing annual growth rates of four-hundred percent. Entire new fields of study are emerging that show great promise for humankind, as well as the potential for misuse. One such example is genomics, which officially started with the Human Genomic Project in 1989 and took an entire decade to decode the human genome by 1999, but later took only three weeks to decode the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus in 2003 at the height of the SARS pandemic. The proliferation of knowledge and capabilities has provided ever increasing opportunities for scientific breakthroughs as well as for employing biological technology for nefarious purposes. Consider the potential for the manipulation of a pathogen to alter its virulence or improve its stability when deployed as a weapon.Since 2001 and the anthrax attacks in the United States, the bioterror question has received great scrutiny. Many argue that an Armageddon-like attack is imminent while others argue that the threat has been exaggerated. In this debate, it has become increasingly difficult to separate fact from fiction. Billions of dollars have been spent attempting to deal with and manage the perceived threats and vulnerabilities. What is ground truth? Does the threat of bioterror represent an existential threat?This study examines the potential for a bioterror attack using a classical game theory approach. Additionally, it provides an objective capability for assessing future threats, understanding emerging trends and developing mitigation strategies. The use of a game theory to examine this issue is highly useful as this application can assist in understanding human interactions and ultimately the decisions we make. In this regard, it is less about predicting future behavior with any certainty, and more about understanding the framework within which this critical nexus continues to allow for more and more dangerous capabilities to proliferate around the world.The overall findings of this study are that biotechnology in the hands of terrorists does present cause for concern and must be addressed taking prudent measures to prevent and protect populations from this threat. Further, should these measures fail, we must have adequate response and recovery systems. However, we must also be mindful that to date, the threat of bioterror has not been demonstrated to be an existential threat to the United States.