Predicting Bitcoin Return Using Extreme Value Theory
نام عام مواد
[Thesis]
نام نخستين پديدآور
Islam, Mohammad Tariquel
نام ساير پديدآوران
Das, Kumer
وضعیت نشر و پخش و غیره
نام ناشر، پخش کننده و غيره
Lamar University - Beaumont
تاریخ نشرو بخش و غیره
2019
يادداشت کلی
متن يادداشت
47 p.
یادداشتهای مربوط به پایان نامه ها
جزئيات پايان نامه و نوع درجه آن
M.S.
کسي که مدرک را اعطا کرده
Lamar University - Beaumont
امتياز متن
2019
یادداشتهای مربوط به خلاصه یا چکیده
متن يادداشت
Bitcoin is the largest among all cryptocurrencies in existence. It was introduced in 2008, and in a short time, Bitcoin price reached USD 19,345.49 in Dec 2017. Investors are also considering Bitcoin as an alternative to their current investments. Rather than looking into the price of Bitcoin, we looked into the historical return of Bitcoin and decided to study the future pattern. We found that the historical Bitcoin daily return data are not normally distributed, and the presence of many extreme outliers. Therefore, we examined the historic Bitcoin daily returns using Extreme Value Theory to predict the future return level and the probability of exceeding certain return levels. We have shown the predicted return levels for 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year with a 95% confidence interval using both the block maxima approach and threshold excess approach.
اصطلاحهای موضوعی کنترل نشده
اصطلاح موضوعی
Economics
اصطلاح موضوعی
Finance
اصطلاح موضوعی
Mathematics
نام شخص به منزله سر شناسه - (مسئولیت معنوی درجه اول )