عنوان

Improving Year-to-Year Bicycle Traffic Flow Prediction for Health and Safety Behavior and Other Public Health Applications

شماره

TL50164

زبان متن نوشتاري يا گفتاري و مانند آن

انگلیسی

عنوان اصلي

Improving Year-to-Year Bicycle Traffic Flow Prediction for Health and Safety Behavior and Other Public Health Applications

نام عام مواد

[Thesis]

نام نخستين پديدآور

Martin, Eric Vance

نام ساير پديدآوران

Torabi, Mohammad R.

نام ناشر، پخش کننده و غيره

Indiana University

تاریخ نشرو بخش و غیره

2019

متن يادداشت

232 p.

جزئيات پايان نامه و نوع درجه آن

Ph.D.

کسي که مدرک را اعطا کرده

Indiana University

امتياز متن

2019

متن يادداشت

Policy makers would like to increase physical activity through bicycling and to reduce bicyclist exposure to injury and air pollution. Bicycle traffic flow can be used to study these problems and design interventions; however, it is typically observed sparsely. Statistical bicycle facility demand (BFD) models, grounded in the land use theory of traffic flow, can predict it citywide, enabling analyses. Typically, BFD modelers' exploratory model building methods incorrectly assume that observations are independent. This can lead to prediction error, Type I error in covariate selection, and poor transferability of results. The purposes of this dissertation were to assess the impact of assumption violations, to demonstrate better methods for clustered, temporal, and spatial bicycle count data, and to test rigorously whether improvements in bicycle facilities may increase bicycle traffic flow. This exploratory study re-analyzed a published dataset of unbalanced, longitudinal, annual bicycle counts and candidate covariates. In both main analyses, data were fit to multilevel regression-based growth curve and spatial models. Re-analysis of a published BFD model showed that it likely retained several covariates in error. In addition to the expected explanation of the spatial distribution of the outcome, a new growth curve model-based BFD model built with forward selection indicated that the within-location addition of bicycle facilities was associated with increasing bicycling, the first study to find this in a longitudinal framework. In validation, measured predictors performed well, but kriging predictions of the model error did not. Unlike previous studies, the results are presented with high confidence that non-independent residuals did not affect covariate selection or effect estimation. Results demonstrated the importance of statistical control of correlated residuals due to clustering and spatial autocorrelation. The literature review suggested a framework for rigorous BFD modeling and improved transferability. Future studies should use random samples and statistically control clustering and spatial autocorrelation.

اصطلاح موضوعی

Behavioral psychology

اصطلاح موضوعی

Public health

اصطلاح موضوعی

Transportation

مستند نام اشخاص تاييد نشده

Martin, Eric Vance

مستند نام اشخاص تاييد نشده

Torabi, Mohammad R.

مستند نام تنالگان تاييد نشده

Indiana University

نام الکترونيکي

فرمت انتشار

p

نوع ماده

[Thesis]

کد کاربرگه

276903

سطح دسترسي

a

تكميل شده

Y