عنوان

Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050.

شماره

LA3bc706vm

عنوان اصلي

Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050.

نام عام مواد

[Article]

نام نخستين پديدآور

Ray, Deepak K; Mueller, Nathaniel D; West, Paul C; Foley, Jonathan A

متن يادداشت

Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops-maize, rice, wheat, and soybean-that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.

تاريخ نشر

2013

عنوان

UC Irvine

نام الکترونيکي

نوع ماده

[Article]

کد کاربرگه

275578

سطح دسترسي

a

تكميل شده

Y