1. تدوین استراتژی بهینه ایران در تجارت بین‌المللی گاز :رویکرد مدلسازی عامل بنیان,‮‭The aim of this paper is to study Irans optimal strategy for natural gas export, using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). In this regard, ۱۰ potential importers for Irans gas export and ۷ rival exporters have been selected as agents. A conceptual framework based on three factors that affecting decision making including price, infrastructure and risk was designed to simulate interactions and behaviors of importers and exporters. The outcome of the simulation model is to estimate the volumes of natural gas trade among these countries for nine years (including three periods of three years). The empirical results of study indicate that: ۱- Considering the fact that in the first periods, as Iran has a lack of satisfactory infrastructure and higher risk factors, therefor increasing market share using price factor by suggesting more discount should be priority. ۲- In the first and second periods export natural gas via pipeline to neighboring countries has the priority to the LNG export. However, in the context that the share of LNG trade is growing significantly in the international gas trade, investment on the LNG infrastructure to diversify gas export routes. ۳- In the ۱st period, the priorities for Irans gas export respectively are: Turkey, Iraq and Armenia. In the ۲nd period, with the completing the Iran-Pakistan pipeline and construction of Iran-Oman pipeline, Iran can expand its export significantly to these countries. In the ۳rd period, in addition to Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Oman, Iran can expand its export via pipeline to Georgia and LNG to India and China‬

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