On the analysis of livestock networks and the modelling of foot-and-mouth disease
نام عام مواد
[Thesis]
نام نخستين پديدآور
Dawson, Peter Michael
وضعیت نشر و پخش و غیره
نام ناشر، پخش کننده و غيره
University of Warwick
تاریخ نشرو بخش و غیره
2016
یادداشتهای مربوط به پایان نامه ها
جزئيات پايان نامه و نوع درجه آن
Thesis (Ph.D.)
امتياز متن
2016
یادداشتهای مربوط به خلاصه یا چکیده
متن يادداشت
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious disease affecting cloven-hoofed ruminants. FMD is endemic across Asia, Africa and South America and, as demonstrated by the 2001 outbreak in the UK, can cause devastating epidemics in FMD free countries. A comprehensive dataset comprising the births, deaths and farm-to-farm movements of almost fifty million cattle was made available to us by the Turkish authorities. In chapter 2 we discuss the processing, cleaning and analysis of this dataset. Cattle movement networks were built using farms as nodes and the farm-to-farm movements as edges before performing a network analysis. The richness and completeness of the Turkish data set is not generally available to modellers. In chapter 3 we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions, using the British cattle trade network as a case study. In chapter 4 we introduce community detection as a method for analysing the cattle movement networks of both the UK and Turkey. This analysis goes beyond the calculation of the farm level statistics calculated in chapter 2 and seeks to find higher order structures in these networks. Chapter 5 develops a within farm model of FMD by drawing on outbreak data from two farms of different sizes in Turkey. This model is parametrised by running a Bayesian inference scheme on the smaller of the two farms. Simulations were then performed on both farms using the inferred posterior parameter distributions.
موضوع (اسم عام یاعبارت اسمی عام)
موضوع مستند نشده
SF Animal culture
نام شخص به منزله سر شناسه - (مسئولیت معنوی درجه اول )