عنوان

Fortune tellers :

شابک

0691159114 (hardback)

شابک

9780691159119 (hardback)

شماره

dltt

عنوان اصلي

Fortune tellers :

نام عام مواد

[Book]

ساير اطلاعات عنواني

the story of America's first economic forecasters /

نام نخستين پديدآور

Walter A. Friedman.

نام خاص و کميت اثر

xi, 273 pages :

ساير جزييات

illustrations ;

ابعاد

25 cm

متن يادداشت

Includes bibliographical references (pages [217]-260) and index.

متن يادداشت

Roger W. Babson : the rule of past patterns : "The fundamental law of 'action reaction'" -- Irving Fisher : the economy as a mathematical model : "The velocity of money" -- John Moody : the bright light of transparency : "An aggregation of over 440 large industrial, franchise and transportation trusts" -- Gallery of business and forecasting charts -- C.J. Bullock and Warren Persons : the Harvard ABC chart : "The statistician ... attempts to find a specific analogy existing in an orderly universe" -- Wesley Mitchell and Herbert Hoover : forecasting as policy : "If we could foresee the business cycle, there would be none" -- Visions of the future.

بدون عنوان

0

متن يادداشت

"The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929.Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself"--

موضوع مستند نشده

Business forecasting-- United States-- History.

موضوع مستند نشده

Economic forecasting-- United States-- History.

موضوع مستند نشده

Economists-- United States, Biography.

شماره

ويراست

شماره رده

نشانه اثر

مستند نام اشخاص تاييد نشده

Friedman, Walter A.,1962-

تاريخ عمليات

20140305030717.0

قواعد فهرست نويسي ( بخش توصيفي )

rda

نام الکترونيکي

نوع ماده

[Book]

تكميل شده

Y