NATIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHY NUMBER
Number
۱۹۵۴۹پ
LANGUAGE OF THE ITEM
.Language of Text, Soundtrack etc
per
TITLE AND STATEMENT OF RESPONSIBILITY
Title Proper
آینده پژوهی مهاجرت با تأکید بر توان‌صهای محیطی(مطالعه موردی استان آذربایجان شرقی)
Parallel Title Proper
The Future Study of Migration with Emphasis on Environmental Capacities (Case Study of East Azerbaijan Province)
First Statement of Responsibility
/طاهره السادات موسوی
.PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC
Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.
: برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی
Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.
، ۱۳۹۷
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item
۲۶۱ص
NOTES PERTAINING TO PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Text of Note
چاپی - الکترونیکی
DISSERTATION (THESIS) NOTE
Dissertation or thesis details and type of degree
کار شناسی ارشد
Discipline of degree
برنامه ریزی آمایش سرزمین
Date of degree
۱۳۹۷/۰۶/۱۰
Body granting the degree
تبریز
SUMMARY OR ABSTRACT
Text of Note
یکی از مسایل و مشکلات کشورهای در حال توسعه مهاجرت می‌صباشد .مهاجرت شکلی از تحرک جغرافیایی جمعیت است که بین دو مکان جغرافیایی صورت می‌صگیرد و تحت تأثیر عوامل مختلفی از جمله :عوامل اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی و محیطی قرار دارد .توان‌صهای محیطی به عنوان یکی از این عوامل بیانگر استعدادهای بالقوه و بالفعلی است که هر مکان در بطن خود دارد و در صورت استفاده صحیح و به‌صجا از این توان‌صها و منابع می‌صتواند تأثیر صبسزایی در کاهش میزان مهاجرت داشته صباشد .این پژوهش با بهره‌صگیری از رویکردهای مدیریت استراتژیک و آینده‌صپژوهی و اتکا به مدل‌صهای برنامه‌صریزی بر پایه سناریو، به بحث در خصوص آینده‌صپژوهی مهاجرت در استان آذربایجان شرقی با تأکید بر توان‌صهای محیطی پرداخته است و اهدافی نظیر شناسایی مؤلفه‌صهای کلیدی و تأثیرگذار مهاجرت استان و ترسیم آینده‌ص مطلوب مهاجرت استان با رویکرد آینده پژوهی را دنبال کرده است .چارچوب نظری این پژوهش، پارادایم هنجاری است .پژوهش حاضر، از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت بر اساس روش‌صهای جدید آینده‌صپژوهی، توصیفی- تحلیلی می‌صباشد .روش جمع‌صآوری داده‌صها و اطلاعات اسنادی و میدانی و مدل‌صهای پردازش داده‌صها و اطلاعاتSWOT ،GIS ، تحلیل اثرات متقابل، دلفی و سناریو نویسی است .استان آذربایجان شرقی به عنوان یکی از مناطق مهاجرفرست و دارای ویژگی‌صهای منحصر به فرد از لحاظ توان‌صهای محیطی :معادن، جنگلداری، کشاورزی دامپروری، آب و اقلیم دارای پتانسیل‌صهای بالایی در این زمینه می‌صباشد و طیف گسترده‌صای از آینده‌صهای محتمل را پیش‌صروی خود دارد .در این پژوهش با بهره‌صگیری از مطالعات موجود در زمینه‌صی مهاجرت با تأکید بر توان-های محیطی استان، معیارهای مهاجرت در شش گروه اقلیم، جنگلداری، معادن، کشاورزی دامپروی، نرخ بیکاری و آب طبقه-بندی شد
Text of Note
One of the problems of developing countries is immigration. Immigration is a form of population geographic mobility that occurs between two geographic locations and is affected by different parameters, including economic, social, cultural and environmental factors. Environmental potentials as one of these factors represent the potential and present capacity that each location has in side, and if used correctly and properly, these power and resources could have significant effects on the reduction of immigration rates. This research, using strategic and prospective management approaches and relying on scenario-based planning models, discusses the future of immigration research in East Azerbaijan province with emphasis on environmental abilities, and aims at identification of the key and influential components of the province's migration. The future prospect of migration has been pursued with a future-oriented approach. The theoretical framework of this research is a normative paradigm. The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature, based on new methods of future research. Data collection, documents and field data and processing and models used are SWOT, GIS, analysis the of mutual effects, Delphi technique and scenarios. East Azerbaijan Province is one of the immigrant areas, with unique features in terms of environmental capacities: mines, forestry, agriculture, animal husbandry, water and climate with high potential in this field, and wide range of the possible future. In this research, using existing migration studies with emphasis on environmental capabilities of the province, immigration criteria were categorized in six climatic groups, forestry, mines, agriculture, animal husbandry, unemployment rate and water. At the first stage, out of 207 effective factors in the province's migration, 42 factors were identified by experts using SWOT and Delphi method. Then the Delphi method evaluated the effects of these factors on each other by experts, which resulted in the extraction of 13 key factors out of 42. For the above factors, based on the idea of scenario-writing, 57 possible situations were defined in the future of the province. Using scenario-based software capabilities, 3 scenarios with a high probability, 13 scenarios with an average probability of occurrence and 273 scenarios with weak probability were extracted. The basis of this research was the analysis of 3 very strong scenarios and 13 probability scenarios of medium to high. A total of 13 valid scenarios were classified into 3 groups according to their desirability: 2 more scenarios, existing situation, interstate and static mode, 4 scenarios in desirable condition and 7 scenarios of adverse and critical situation. Based on the results, East Azerbaijan province will continue the existing conditions and will be in a desirable process in the future. In the next stage, using the 13 key proponent that were the main key factors in the province, were evaluated by using the SOWT model. In this area, the province at the stage of maintenance, is in aggressive approach. According to these, strategies have been given and recommendations have been made on the basis of strategies. Finally, the relationship between environmental and migration resources was analyzed using Arc Map software. The results were obtained from among 7 environmental capabilities of East Azerbaijan province (mines, forests, rangelands, gardens, cultivation, agriculture, and barren lands) There is no relation between the rangelands, mines and barren lands of the province with environmental power. In the case of forests , gardens, cultivation and agriculture this relationship also exists
PARALLEL TITLE PROPER
Parallel Title
The Future Study of Migration with Emphasis on Environmental Capacities (Case Study of East Azerbaijan Province)
PERSONAL NAME - PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY
موسوی، طاهره السادات
Mousavi, Tahereh Sadat
ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Public note
سیاه و سفید
نمایه‌سازی قبلی
