Chapter 1 Plausibility versus Probability: Two Worldviews -- Chapter 2 The Evolution of Modern Analytics -- Chapter 3 Natural Selection on Wall Street -- Chapter 4 A Review: Risk Management Metrics, Models, and Best Practice -- Chapter 5 Systemic Risk and Systems Thinking -- Chapter 6 Belief Systems and the Inadvertent Conspiracy: The Global Capital Markets as System -- Chapter 7 Analytic Tradecraft and Model Risk -- Chapter 8 The Future as Forecast: Probability, Likelihood, and Uncertainty -- Chapter 9 An Alternative Path to Actionable Intelligence -- Chapter 10 Solutions: Moving toward a Connectivist Approach -- Chapter 11 An Introduction to Causality: Theory, Models, and Inference -- Chapter 12 Bayesian Inference Networks: Estimating Vulnerability, Consequences, and Likelihood -- Chapter 13 Securities Valuation, Risk Measurement, and Risk Inference Networks -- Chapter 14 Risk Fusion and Supermodels: A Framework for Enterprise Risk Management -- Chapter 15 Inferring Causality from Historical Market Behavior -- Chapter 16 Sensemaking for Warnings: Reverse-Engineering Market Intelligence -- Chapter 17 The United States as Enterprise: Implications for National Policy and Security -- Notes -- Index.