عنوان

Fault lines in China's economic terrain /

(Number (ISBN

0833036041

(Number (ISBN

1282451502

(Number (ISBN

9780833036049

(Number (ISBN

9781282451506

Erroneous ISBN

0833033441

Erroneous ISBN

9780833033444

Number

b746333

Title Proper

Fault lines in China's economic terrain /

General Material Designation

[Book]

First Statement of Responsibility

Charles Wolf, Jr. [and others].

Place of Publication, Distribution, etc.

Santa Monica, CA :

Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.

RAND,

Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.

2003.

Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item

1 online resource (xxvii, 207 pages) :

Other Physical Details

illustrations, map

Text of Note

"MR-1686-NA/SRF"--Page [ii].

Text of Note

"Prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, Dept. of Defense and the Smith Richardson Foundation."

Text of Note

Title from title screen (viewed Jan. 13, 2004).

Text of Note

Includes bibliographical references (pages 181-194) and index.

Text of Note

Potential adversities confronting China's continued economic growth -- Massive unemployment and rural poverty -- Economic effects of corruption -- Epidemic disease: a wild card in china's economic future? -- Water resources and pollution -- GDP effects of an energy price shock -- China's fragile financial system and the state-owned enterprises -- Possible shrinkage of foreign capital inflows -- Taiwan and other potential conflicts -- Conclusions: fault lines in China's economic terrain.

0

Text of Note

What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (these terms are used synonymously), that China's economic development will encounter over the next decade? How severely will China's overall economic performance be affected if these adversities occur separately or in clusters? This book addresses these key questions. China has confronted in the past two decades five of the eight fault lines that the authors consider (unemployment, corruption, water resources, HIV/AIDS, and financial fragility), and, nonetheless, it has sustained high rates of economic growth. Therefore, in assessing the potential effects of these fault lines on China's future economic performance, the authors focus on whether, why, and by how much their intensities may increase--that is, on changes, rather than on the prevailing levels of each fault line. For the other three fault lines examined, which have not previously occurred or recurred--oil price shocks, foreign-direct-investment shrinkage, and serious military conflicts--the authors consider the circumstances under which they might arise and their resulting economic effects. For each of the eight fault lines, the authors estimate a "bottom-line" in terms of expected effects on China's annual growth rate over the next decade, drawing on a variety of methods, models, and judgments to make these estimates. The authors suggest that the probability that none of these individual setbacks will occur is low, while the probability that all will occur is still lower. Because of interdependencies among the fault lines, it is highly likely that several separate adversities will cluster if any one of them occurs. For examples: an internal financial crisis would have serious negative effects on the relative attractiveness of foreign investment in China, contributing to shrinkage of foreign direct investment; epidemic disease would intensify water pollution problems and would discourage foreign investment.

Text of Note

Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.

Source for Acquisition/Subscription Address

JSTOR

Stock Number

22573/ctt5j5s

Title

Fault lines in China's economic terrain (Original)

Public health-- China.

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS-- Economic Conditions.

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS-- Economic History.

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS-- Economics-- Comparative.

Economic history.

POLITICAL SCIENCE-- Economic Conditions.

POLITICAL SCIENCE-- International Relations-- General.

Public health.

Social conditions

China, Economic conditions, 2000-

China, Social conditions, 2000-

China.

0

0

7

BUS-- 022000

BUS-- 023000

BUS-- 069010

GTB, KCS

POL-- 023000

POL011000

POL012000

POL044000

Number

Edition

Class number

Book number

Wolf, Charles,Jr.,1924-2016.

United States., Department of Defense., Director of Net Assessment.

National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Smith Richardson Foundation.

Date of Transaction

20201204063022.0

Cataloguing Rules (Descriptive Conventions))

pn

Electronic name

[Book]

Y