عنوان

Blindside :

(Number (ISBN

0815729898

(Number (ISBN

1281029637

(Number (ISBN

9780815729891

(Number (ISBN

9781281029638

Erroneous ISBN

0815729901

Erroneous ISBN

9780815729907

Number

b715744

Title Proper

Blindside :

General Material Designation

[Book]

Other Title Information

how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /

First Statement of Responsibility

Francis Fukuyama, editor.

Place of Publication, Distribution, etc.

Washington, D.C. :

Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.

Brookings Institution Press,

Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.

©2007.

Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item

1 online resource (vi, 198 pages)

Text of Note

"An American Interest Book."

Text of Note

Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-180) and index.

Text of Note

The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Notes -- Contributors -- Index.

0

Text of Note

"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.

Text of Note

Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.

Source for Acquisition/Subscription Address

JSTOR

Stock Number

22573/ctt5zfxf1

Title

Blindside.

International Standard Book Number

0815729901

Emergency management-- United States.

International relations.

11 September 2001.

Emergency management.

International relations.

NATURE-- Natural Disasters.

Rampen.

SOCIAL SCIENCE-- Disasters & Disaster Relief.

Voorspellingen.

Voorzorg.

Wereldcrises.

United States.

7

JPS

NAT-- 023000

POL028000

SOC-- 040000

SOC040000

Number

Edition

Class number

Book number

Class number

Class number

System Code

System Code

Fukuyama, Francis

Date of Transaction

20201208055824.0

Cataloguing Rules (Descriptive Conventions))

pn

Electronic name

[Book]

Y