عنوان

Computing possible futures :

(Number (ISBN

0191881589

(Number (ISBN

0192585436

(Number (ISBN

0192585444

(Number (ISBN

9780191881589

(Number (ISBN

9780192585431

(Number (ISBN

9780192585448

Erroneous ISBN

9780198846420

Title Proper

Computing possible futures :

General Material Designation

[Book]

Other Title Information

model-based explorations of "what if?" /

First Statement of Responsibility

William B. Rouse.

Place of Publication, Distribution, etc.

New York, NY :

Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.

Oxford University Press,

Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.

[2019]

Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.

©2019

Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item

1 online resource (202 pages)

Text of Note

This book discusses the use of models and interactive visualizations to explore designs of systems and policies in determining whether such designs would be effective. Executives and senior managers are very interested in what "data analytics" can do for them and, quite recently, what the prospects are for artificial intelligence and machine learning. They want to understand and then invest wisely. They are reasonably skeptical, having experienced overselling and under-delivery. They ask about reasonable and realistic expectations. Their concern is with the futurity of decisions they are currently entertaining. They cannot fully address this concern empirically. Thus, they need some way to make predictions. The problem is that one rarely can predict exactly what will happen, only what might happen. To overcome this limitation, executives can be provided predictions of possible futures and the conditions under which each scenario is likely to emerge. Models can help them to understand these possible futures. Most executives find such candor refreshing, perhaps even liberating. Their job becomes one of imagining and designing a portfolio of possible futures, assisted by interactive computational models. Understanding and managing uncertainty is central to their job. Indeed, doing this better than competitors is a hallmark of success. This book is intended to help them understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it. The hope is that readers will discuss this book and develop a "shared mental model" of computational modeling in the process, which will greatly enhance their chances of success.

International Standard Book Number

9780198846420

Computer simulation.

Decision making.

Information visualization.

Management-- Data processing.

Mathematical models.

Computer simulation.

Decision making.

Information visualization.

Management-- Data processing.

Mathematical models.

Number

Edition

Class number

Book number

Rouse, William B.

Date of Transaction

20200822092739.0

Cataloguing Rules (Descriptive Conventions))

pn

Electronic name

[Book]

Y