Intro; Preface; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Abstract; 1 Patents and Economics; 1.1 Linkage Between Patents and Economics; 1.2 Cutting Through Economics Jungle; 1.3 Wading Through Patent Turbulence; 1.4 Necessary Patent Reforms; 1.5 The Post-capitalist and Post-patentist Eras; References; 2 Logic, Politics and Economics-A Brief History of Political Economy; 2.1 Formulation of Ideas from Practice; 2.1.1 Chinese Thought; 2.1.2 Greek Thought; 2.1.3 Arab-Islamic Thought; 2.1.4 Scholasticism; 2.1.5 Mercantilism; 2.1.6 Physiocracy; 2.2 Contest of Ideas Based on Logical Reasoning
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2.2.1 Moralists v. s. Underconsumptionists2.2.2 Nature of International Trade and Causes of Wealth of Nations; 2.2.3 Government Intervention v. s. Laissez-Faire; 2.2.4 The Puzzle of Value Determination; 2.2.5 Income Distribution and the Fate of Capitalism; 2.2.6 Say's Law of Market v. s. Keynes' Excess of Saving; 2.2.7 Profit and Interest Explained; 2.2.8 Nominal Value, Real Value, Relative Value and Money Illusion; 2.2.9 Contextual v. s. Abstract Approaches; 2.2.10 Decline of Macroeconomic Theories; 2.3 Theories and Empirical Evidence; 2.3.1 Common-Sense Empirical Approach
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2.3.2 Systematic Use of Data2.3.3 Probability Approach; 2.3.4 The 'Great' Empirical Period; 2.3.5 Fallacies and Limitations in Empirical Studies; 2.4 Progression of Scientific Research and the Future of Economics; 2.4.1 Nature of Scientific Research and Hypotheses on Progression of Science; 2.4.2 Economics as an Art and as a Science; 2.4.3 Future of Economics; 2.4.3.1 Emphasizing Logical Thinking; 2.4.3.2 Focusing on the Essence of a Theory and the Contest of Economic Ideas; 2.4.3.3 Uncovering Valid Empirical Methods and Bridging the Theory-Data Gap; References; 3 Statistical Sophistry
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3.1 A Brief Review of History of Statistical Thought3.2 Premise and Limits of Probability Law; 3.2.1 Premise of Probability Law; 3.2.2 Limits of Probability Law; 3.3 Rise of Macroeconometrics Despite Numerous Grave Criticisms; 3.4 Flawed Theoretical Foundation for Macroeconometrics; 3.4.1 Violating the Condition for Probability Theory; 3.4.2 Inability to Include All Factors in a Model; 3.4.3 Least Likelihood of Selecting a Correct Function for a Macroeconometric Model; 3.5 Problems in Macroeconometric Practice; 3.5.1 Baseless Assumption About Random Variable/Disturbance
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3.5.2 Cutting Short Toes to Fit the Shoes3.5.3 Tricky Ways of Using Concepts; 3.5.4 Inability to Model Uncertainties Based on Time Series Data; 3.5.5 Artificially Fixing the Issues in Data; 3.5.6 Scientific Illusion of Statistic Tests; 3.5.7 Impossibility of Overcoming Spurious Regression Within a Statistic Framework; 3.5.8 Fallacies of Univariate Model, Instrument-variable Method and Bootstrap; 3.5.9 Issues with the VAR Model, the DSGE Model and the Bayesian Method; 3.5.10 Fortune-Teller Style of Forecasting; 3.6 Performance of Econometrics; 3.6.1 The Saga of Econometric Modelling
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SUMMARY OR ABSTRACT
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Based on economic knowledge and logical reasoning, this book proposes a solution to economic recessions and offers a route for societal change to end capitalism. The author starts with a brief review of the history of economics, and then questions and rejects the trend of recent decades that has seen econometrics replace economic theory. By reviewing the different schools of economic thought and by examining the limitations of existing theories to business cycles and economic growth, the author forms a new theory to explain cyclic economic growth. According to this theory, economic recessions result from innovation scarcity, which in turn results from the flawed design of the patent system. The author suggests a new design for the patent system and envisions that the new design would bring about large economic and societal changes. Under this new patent system, the synergy of the patent and capital markets would ensure that economic recessions could be avoided and that the economy would grow at the highest speed.