عنوان
پدید آورنده
موضوع
رده
TS167 .J662 2019
TS167
.
J662
2019
کتابخانه
محل استقرار
INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
(Number (ISBN
131516003X
(Number (ISBN
1351661280
(Number (ISBN
1351661299
(Number (ISBN
9781315160030
(Number (ISBN
9781351661287
(Number (ISBN
9781351661294
Erroneous ISBN
9781138065055
TITLE AND STATEMENT OF RESPONSIBILITY
Title Proper
Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models /
General Material Designation
[Book]
First Statement of Responsibility
Alan R. Jones.
.PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC
Place of Publication, Distribution, etc.
New York, NY :
Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.
Routledge,
Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.
2019.
Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.
©2019
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item
1 online resource (xxiii, 291 pages)
SERIES
Series Title
Working guides to estimating & forecasting ;
Volume Designation
volume V
INTERNAL BIBLIOGRAPHIES/INDEXES NOTE
Text of Note
Includes bibliographical references and index.
CONTENTS NOTE
Text of Note
Cover; Title; Copyright; Dedication; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Foreword; 1 Introduction and objectives; 1.1 Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why five volumes?; 1.1.1 Why write this series? Who might find it useful?; 1.1.2 Why five volumes?; 1.2 Features you'll find in this book and others in this series; 1.2.1 Chapter context; 1.2.2 The lighter side (humour); 1.2.3 Quotations; 1.2.4 Definitions; 1.2.5 Discussions and explanations with a mathematical slant for Formula-philes; 1.2.6 Discussions and explanations without a mathematical slant for Formula-phobes
Text of Note
1.2.7 Caveat augur1.2.8 Worked examples; 1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel functions and facilities; 1.2.10 References to authoritative sources; 1.2.11 Chapter reviews; 1.3 Overview of chapters in this volume; 1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' series; 1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling; 1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff; 1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations; 1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves
Text of Note
1.4.5 Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models1.5 Final thoughts and musings on this volume and series; References; 2 Norden-Rayleigh Curves for solution development; 2.1 Norden-Rayleigh Curves: Who, what, where, when and why?; 2.1.1 Probability Density Function and Cumulative Distribution Function; 2.1.2 Truncation options; 2.1.3 How does a Norden-Rayleigh Curve differ from the Rayleigh Distribution?; 2.1.4 Some practical limitations of the Norden-Rayleigh Curve; 2.2 Breaking the Norden-Rayleigh 'Rules'
Text of Note
2.2.1 Additional objectives: Phased development (or the 'camelling')2.2.2 Correcting an overly optimistic view of the problem complexity: The Square Rule; 2.2.3 Schedule slippage due to resource ramp-up delays: The Pro Rata Product Rule; 2.2.4 Schedule slippage due to premature resource reduction; 2.3 Beta Distribution: A practical alternative to Norden-Rayleigh; 2.3.1 PERT-Beta Distribution: A viable alternative to Norden-Rayleigh?; 2.3.2 Resource profiles with Norden-Rayleigh Curves and Beta Distribution PDFs; 2.4 Triangular Distribution: Another alternative to Norden-Rayleigh
Text of Note
2.5 Truncated Weibull Distributions and their Beta equivalents2.5.1 Truncated Weibull Distributions for solution development; 2.5.2 General Beta Distributions for solution development; 2.6 Estimates to Completion with Norden-Rayleigh Curves; 2.6.1 Guess and Iterate Technique; 2.6.2 Norden-Rayleigh Curve fitting with Microsoft Excel Solver; 2.6.3 Linear transformation and regression; 2.6.4 Exploiting Weibull Distribution's double log linearisation constraint; 2.6.5 Estimates to Completion -- Review and conclusion; 2.7 Chapter review; References
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SUMMARY OR ABSTRACT
Text of Note
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
ACQUISITION INFORMATION NOTE
Source for Acquisition/Subscription Address
Ingram Content Group
Stock Number
9781351661287
OTHER EDITION IN ANOTHER MEDIUM
Title
Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models.
International Standard Book Number
9781138065055
TOPICAL NAME USED AS SUBJECT
Costs, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
Research, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
Risk-- Statistical methods.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS-- Industries-- General.
Costs, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
Research, Industrial-- Statistical methods.
Risk-- Statistical methods.
(SUBJECT CATEGORY (Provisional
BUS-- 070000
DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION
Number
338
.
5/1
Edition
23
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CLASSIFICATION
Class number
TS167
Book number
.
J662
2019
PERSONAL NAME - PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY
Jones, Alan, (Alan R.),1953-
ORIGINATING SOURCE
Date of Transaction
20200822160711.0
Cataloguing Rules (Descriptive Conventions))
pn
ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Electronic name
مطالعه متن کتاب [Book]
Y
