a practical guide to modelling uncertainty with Microsoft Excel
First Statement of Responsibility
Alastair L. Day.
EDITION STATEMENT
Edition Statement
2nd ed
.PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC
Place of Publication, Distribution, etc.
Harlow
Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.
Financial Times/Prentice Hall
Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.
2009
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item
(text (XVIII, 390 p.))
GENERAL NOTES
Text of Note
1st ed. 2003.
CONTENTS NOTE
Text of Note
Conventions Overview 1 Introduction Scope of the book Example model Objectives of risk modelling Summary 2 Review of model design Introduction Design objectives Common errors Excel features Formats Number formats Lines and borders Colour and patterns Specific colour for inputs and results Data validation Controls combo boxes and buttons Conditional formatting Use of functions and types of functions Add-ins for more functions Text and updated labels Recording a version number, author, etc. Using names Pasting a names table Comment cells Graphics Dynamic graphs to plot individual series Data tables Scenarios Spreadsheet auditing Summary 3 Risk and uncertainty Introduction Risk Uncertainty Response to risk Methods Summary 4 Project finance Introduction Requirements Advantages Risks Risk analysis Risk mitigation Financial model Inputs Sensitivity and cost of capital Construction, borrowing and output Accounting schedules Management analysis and summaries Summary 5 Simulation Introduction Building blocks Procedure Real estate example Summary 6 Financial analysis Introduction Process Environment Industry Financial statements Profit and loss Balance sheet Operating efficiency Profitability Financial structure Core ratios Market ratios Trend analysis Cash flow Forecasts Financial analysis Summary 7 Credit risk Cash flow Cover ratios Sustainability Beaver's model Bathory model Z scores Springate analysis Logit analysis H-Factor model Ratings agency Summary References 8 Valuation Introduction Inputs Cash flow Capital structure Valuation and returns Sensitivity analysis Management summary Summary 9 Bonds Introduction Bond prices Interest rates Yield Duration and maturity Convexity Comparison Summary 10 Options Introduction Options Options example Options hedging strategy Black Scholes Simulation options pricing Binomial model Summary 11 Real options Introduction Project Option to delay Option to abandon Option to expand Summary 12 Equities Introduction Historic data Returns summary Simulation Portfolio Summary References 13 Risk adjusted returns Introduction Economic capital Risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) Summary 14 Value at risk Introduction Single asset model Two assets Three asset portfolio Summary 15 Credit value at risk Introduction Portfolio approach Overview of components Single asset Two-bond portfolio Simulation Summary Appendix: software installation and licence Index