عنوان

Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas :

(Number (ISBN

0774805013

(Number (ISBN

9780774805018

Number

dltt

Title Proper

Demographic projection techniques for regions and smaller areas :

General Material Designation

[Book]

Other Title Information

a primer /

First Statement of Responsibility

H. Craig Davis.

Place of Publication, Distribution, etc.

Vancouver :

Name of Publisher, Distributor, etc.

UBC Press,

Date of Publication, Distribution, etc.

c1995.

Specific Material Designation and Extent of Item

xii, 116 p. :

Other Physical Details

ill. ;

Dimensions

23 cm.

Text of Note

Includes bibliographical references (p. 111-113) and index.

Text of Note

1. Introduction. The Value of Population Projections. Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions. The Basic Demographic Equation. Overview of the Book -- 2. Mathematical Extrapolation I. The Linear Function. The Exponential Function. Polynomial Functions. The Hyperbolic Function -- 3. Mathematical Extrapolation II. The Modified Exponential Function. Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review. Choosing among Extrapolations -- 4. Comparative Methods. Ratio Methods. Difference Methods. Choosing among Methods -- 5. The Cohort-Survival Population Model. The Basic Cohort Model. Mortality. Fertility -- 6. Migration Models. Basic Concepts. Causes of Migration. Estimating Past Migration. Projecting Future Migration -- 7. A Final Note. Mathematical Extrapolation. Comparative Methods. The Cohort-Survival Model. Migration Models -- Addendum: Qualities of a Good Demographic Analyst -- Appendix A: Linear Regression -- Appendix B: Logarithms.

0

Text of Note

In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.

Text of Note

The ability to project population trends is of vital importance for anyone involved in planning - in the public as well as the private sector. This book provides the tools for making such projections and discusses four principal approaches: mathematical extrapolation, comparative methods, cohort survival, and migration models. Following the introductory chapter, which considers the need and uses for population projections, the next two chapters are concerned with mathematical extrapolation techniques, as they are the tools most commonly used to project the size of a population and are also frequently employed in projecting components of one or more of the other three approaches.

Demography-- Methodology.

Population forecasting-- Methodology.

Class number

Book number

Davis, H. Craig.

Date of Transaction

20140214081602.0

Electronic name

[Book]

Y