An investigation of 'dry year options' for the Edwards aquifer
[Thesis]
K. O. Keplinger
A. Sullivan
Texas A&M University
1996
119
Ph.D.
Texas A&M University
1996
The Edwards aquifer controversy is a classic example of the transition which occurs when a common-pool resource governed under the institution of 'free capture' fails to meet all demands. As such, it provides opportunities for water planners to develop institutions which allocate this scarce resource in more desirable patterns. An Edwards Aquifer Authority (EAA) has already been established, but it may be several years, before water rights are completely adjudicated. A 'dry year option' is a plan which can be implemented in the near-term. 'Dry year option' plans involve paying farmers not to irrigate during drought conditions or when aquifer levels are low. This study investigates the economic and hydrologic implications of implementing 'dry year option' plans for the Edwards aquifer. The quantitative analysis consists of: (1) simulating aquifer responses to various combinations of pumping and recharge, (2) developing a simple representation of the aquifer by applying regression analysis to simulated data, (3) developing 'dry year option' economic optimization models to determine irrigators' responses to dry year offers, (4) applying regression coefficients to the amount of water saved in order to determine hydrologic effects, and (5) running the optimization models for several 'dry year option' alternatives. Results suggest that large reductions in agricultural water use can be obtained for a relatively small per acre foot cost. Model results indicate that offering irrigators in Medina and Bexar counties usd50 per acre not to irrigate for a January 1usdspstusd cutoff results in 34,801 acres in the region converting to dryland, resulting in a reduction in agricultural water use of 87,660 acre feet. This reduction produces an increase in springflow of 35,491 acre feet for the current year. Comal springflow during the month of August increases by an estimated 67 cfs. The total cost for implementing this version of a 'dry year option' is estimated at usd1.74 million. The average cost of additional water saved, which could be applied to municipal use, would be about \usd20 per acre foot. If the cutback in agricultural pumping were applied to springflow, the average cost of additional springflow would be approximately usd49 per acre foot.