Inflation tax in a post-liberalization environment:
[Thesis]
O. C. Akcay
Evidence from Turkey (1980-1990)
A. L. Marty
City University of New York
1992
92
Ph.D.
City University of New York
1992
Following a severe balance of payments problem in the 1970's, Turkey has undergone a structural reform and stabilization program that went into effect in January 1980. Supported by sizeable external financial assistance particularly in its earlier phases, the adjustment program is considered by most to be a story of success. Per annum aggregate real GNP growth in the vicinity of 6 percent with the exception of 1980 when a contraction in GNP was observed, total exports grew at an average of 16.4% per annum during 1980-89, and a steady reduction in the current account/GNP ratio from 3.6% in 1983 to 1.2% in 1989. Turkey managed to pull off a current account surplus in 1988 and 1989 and accumulate substantial foreign reserves. Furthermore, despite significant increases in its external debt/GNP ratio Turkey has become a creditworthy country in the international capital markets where it has access to voluntary lending from different sources due to the increases in its exports/GNP and debt service/exports ratios. The most disturbing aspect of the adjustment program has been the persistent high inflation which was in the 35 to 50 percent per annum range in the 1980-85 period and in the vicinity of 70 percent recently. The aim of this study is to investigate the inflation tax mechanism and the government's approach to its real revenue from the creation of money in the post-1980 Turkey. The analysis will comprise three basic problems in the theory of inflationary finance: firstly, the maximization of inflation tax revenue; secondly, inflationary effects of real GNP growth rate changes, and thirdly a positive theory of the government with respect to the optimal collection of seignorage.