Assessing the sustainability of current and future electricity options for Turkey
[Thesis]
Atilgan, Burcin
Azapagic, Adisa
University of Manchester
2016
Ph.D.
University of Manchester
2016
This research has assessed the environmental, economic and social sustainability of electricity generation in Turkey to contribute towards a better understanding of the overall sustainability impacts of the electricity sector and of possible future scenarios. The assessment of environmental sustainability has been carried out using life cycle assessment; capital, annualised and levelised costs have been used for the economic sustainability and various social indicators along the life cycle of the technologies have been estimated for the social assessment. Multi-criteria decision analysis has been carried out to integrate the three dimensions of sustainability for current electricity generation and future scenarios as well as to help with decision-making. The sustainability assessment of current electricity generation considers all the options present in the Turkish electricity mix: coal (lignite, hard coal), gas, hydro (large and small scale reservoir, run-of-river), onshore wind and geothermal. Each technology has been assessed and compared using 20 sustainability indicators, addressing 11 environmental, three economic and six social aspects. The findings suggest that trade-offs are needed, as each technology is better for some sustainability indicators but worse for others. For example, coal has the highest environmental impacts, except for ozone depletion for which gas is the worst option; gas is the cheapest in terms of capital costs but it provides the lowest direct employment and has the highest levelised costs. Geothermal is the best option for six environmental impacts but has the highest capital cost. Large reservoir has the lowest depletion of elements and fossil resources as well as acidification. Moreover, large reservoir is the cheapest option in terms of levelised costs and the best option for worker injuries and fatalities but provides the lowest life cycle employment. The results for the current electricity sector show that electricity generation in Turkey is responsible for around 111 million tonnes of CO2 eq. emissions annually. Total capital costs of the current electricity sector of Turkey are estimated at US