Foreign Investments and Third-party Intervention in Armed Conflict
[Thesis]
Adelaiye, Samaila Oluwatope
Danilovic, Vesna
State University of New York at Buffalo
2019
121 p.
Ph.D.
State University of New York at Buffalo
2019
What impact does economic globalization have on third-party intervention in armed conflict? Paying attention to foreign direct investments (FDI) in conflict areas, I consider how economic ties to the international system could be predictors of third-party diplomatic intervention in civil conflicts. It is my argument that hosting higher levels of FDI increases the potential damage that a conflict could have on foreign economic interests. For this reason, there is an economic incentive to intervene. Intervention here will be in an attempt to end or de-escalate the conflict. I contend that this economic incentive would spur third-parties towards active diplomatic intervention such as peace conferences and mediation. Using quantitative analysis, I test these arguments. I compare this with military intervention, and I extend the argument to interstate disputes. I also examine the argument with data on US intervention and US investments. The results of the analysis support the argument; however, in the case of international conflicts, I find that FDI is positively associated with both military and diplomatic intervention. Finally, to probe the causal mechanisms, I examine the third-party interveners in the case of the Nigerian civil war (1967-1970).