Facts: Time-variation and business cycle correlation of expected returns -- Equity premium -- Consumption models -- Production, investment and general equilibrium -- Labor income and idiosyncratic risk -- Challenges for the future.
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The author surveys work on the intersection between macroeconomics and finance. The challenge is to find the right measure of "bad times," rises in the marginal value of wealth, so that we can understand high average returns or low prices as compensation for assets' tendency to pay off poorly in "bad times." The author surveys the literature, covering the time-series and cross-sectional facts, the equity premium, consumption-based models, general equilibrium models, and labor income/idiosyncratic risk approaches.