Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-177) and index.
List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Foreword -- Introduction -- Advice to the Reader -- PART I: WHY IS SCENARIO PLANNING NEEDED? SOME REASONS FROM THE FIELD OF STRATEGY RESEARCH -- PART II: SCENARIO PLANNING: AN INTRODUCTORY OVERVIEW -- PART III: SCENARIO PLANNING IN PRACTICE -- PART IV: THE PRINCIPLES OF SCENARIO THINKING -- PART V: THE PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGIC THINKING -- Glossary -- Notes Kairos Future -- References -- Further Reading -- Index.
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The first years of the new millennium have clearly pointed to the need to prepare for the non-preparable. The dangers of failing to prepare were shown in the aftermath of an insane race on the world's stock markets. ICT and telecom shares hit new highs every week, but a year later they hit historical lows. Could the downturn have been foreseen and prepared for, and thus even capitalized on? We believe so. Much of what happened was not unthinkable: it could have been imagined with the use of scenario planning. In this book, we introduce the thinking behind scenario planning and provide our readers with some concepts, models and tools to take back to their own companies. It is based on almost two decades of experience of scenario planning as a strategic tool, where we as consultants have guided multinationals and medium-sized companies as well as governments and non-governmental organizations in these approaches.