Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
2018.
1 online resource (318 pages)
Figure 1.29. The slow pace of structural reform is a risk to medium-term inclusive growth.
Intro; Table of contents; Editorial: Stronger growth, but risks loom large; Chapter 1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation; Introduction; Table 1.1. Global growth is set to remain close to 4% in the next two years; Policy support will help to sustain global growth; Figure 1.1. Global activity indicators have eased recently from robust levels; Figure 1.2. Global GDP growth is set to strengthen further in 2018-19; Figure 1.3. Per capita income growth has picked up in the OECD economies; Box 1.1. An assessment of the impact of US fiscal policy changes.
Figure 1.16. The rate of return on fixed assets remains high in some countriesFigure 1.17. Financial conditions have tightened in many large economies; Figure 1.18. Risk-taking in financial markets has abated somewhat; Figure 1.19. Private sector credit liabilities remain high in many large economies; Figure 1.20. Banks in advanced economies are stronger; Figure 1.21. Some emerging market economies are vulnerable to external shocks; Figure 1.22. Risks for Chinese property developers are mounting; Figure 1.23. The benefits to trade from multilateral tariff reductions.
Figure 1.9. Income and employment gains remain uneven in the OECDKey issues and risks; Figure 1.10. Inflation is projected to approach, or slightly exceed, inflation objectives in the main OECD areas; Figure 1.11. Inflation remains modest in some large emerging market economies; Figure 1.12. Corporate expectations of selling prices have strengthened; Figure 1.13. Large changes in inflation rates have frequently been driven by big changes in energy and food prices; Figure 1.14. Survey evidence points to stronger investment intentions; Figure 1.15. Global investment intensity has picked up.
Policy needs to focus on achieving a durable and inclusive improvement in living standardsFigure 1.24. Monetary policy will tighten while fiscal policy will ease; Figure 1.25. Net purchases of government bonds by the main central banks have declined; Figure 1.26. Monetary policy is expected to remain very accommodative in the euro area; Box 1.2. Modifications of, and alternatives to, current inflation targeting frameworks; Figure 1.27. The fiscal stance is expected to ease in many OECD countries; Figure 1.28. Fiscal buffers are projected to remain limited in a number of OECD countries.
The US fiscal stimulus is set to strengthen short-term GDP growthFigure 1.4. A broad-based upturn in trade growth, but trade intensity remains lower than before the crisis; Figure 1.5. Survey evidence is now pointing to labour shortages in some economies; Figure 1.6. Real wage growth is projected to pick up, helped by improving productivity growth; Figure 1.7. There are high numbers of involuntary part-time and marginally attached workers in some countries; Figure 1.8. Substantial differences remain in activity rates across countries.