عنوان

The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting /

3030181952

9783030181956

9783030181949

The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting /

[Book]

Daniel Williams, Thad Calabrese, editors.

Cham :

Palgrave Macmillan,

2019.

1 online resource (448 pages)

Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue

Includes index.

Revenue Forecasting in the United States

Intro; Contents; Notes on Contributors; List of Figures; List of Tables; 1: Introduction; Introduction; References; Part I: International and National; 2: Macroeconomic Theory and Forecasting; Introduction; Potential Economic Growth; Total Hours; Labor Productivity; Labor Quality; Capital Intensity; Total Factor Productivity; Productivity, Potential and Short-Run Dynamics; Inflation; Interest Rates; Forecast Errors and Adjustments; Appendix; References; 3: Evaluating Government Budget Forecasts; Introduction; Literature Review; Data; Data Description; Graphical Analysis

Comparison of Alternative ForecastsComparisons of RMSEs; Illustration; Forecast Encompassing; Illustration; Pooling and Combining Forecasts; Illustration; Forecast Failure; Comparisons Across Subsamples; Illustration; Tests of Bias and Efficiency; Illustration; General Tests of Forecast Bias; Illustration; A Unified Approach; Remarks; Conclusions; References; 4: Budget Preparation and Forecasting in the Federal Republic of Germany; Introduction; The German Political Structure; Federalism Reforms; The Maastricht Treaty; Balanced Budget; Golden Rule; The German Debt Brake; Control Account

Federal Fiscal Assistance to the LänderDebt Brake; Exceptions; Stability Council; Revenue Estimation; The Financial Planning; Budget Planning; Conclusion; References; 5: Revenue Forecasting in Low-Income and Developing Countries: Biases and Potential Remedies; Introduction; Previous Research; Data and Findings; Potential Remedies: Institutional Proposals and Effectiveness; SARAs: A Promise That Has Yet to Deliver; Independent Fiscal Authorities; Summary and Conclusions; References; 6: The Reliability of Long-Run Budget Projections; Introduction; Looking Backward; Looking Forward

Literature ReviewForecasting Processes; Political Participation; Accuracy; Transparency; Methods; Results; Political Participation in the Forecasting Processes in the U.S. States; Political Acceptance of the Revenue Forecast; Accuracy of the States' Revenue Forecasts; Transparency of States' Revenue Forecasts; Conclusion; Appendix 1: General Fund Forecast to Actual Differences and Midyear Adjustments; Appendix 2: States Without a Reasonable Rationale and GF Forecast to Actual; References; 9: Forecasting Post-Crisis Virginia Tax Revenue; Introduction; Literature Review

Macroeconomic UncertaintyPolicy Uncertainty; Revenues; Health Costs; Economic and Demographic Assumptions; Immigration; Inflation; Interest Rates; Productivity; Sensitivity Analysis; Coping with Uncertainty; Conclusions; References; 7: CBO Updated Forecasts: Do a Few Months Matter?; Introduction; The Forecasting Process; Methodology; Findings; General Descriptives; Deficits/Surpluses; Revenues; Outlays; Regression Analysis; Conclusion; References; Part II: State and Local; 8: State Revenue Forecasting Practices: Accuracy, Transparency, and Political Participation; Introduction

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This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.--

Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting.

9783030181949

Budget, Handbooks, manuals, etc.

Expenditures, Public-- Forecasting, Handbooks, manuals, etc.

Budget.

Expenditures, Public-- Forecasting.

Calabrese, Thad D.

Williams, Daniel.

20200823090118.0

pn

[Book]

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