Prospects of Monetary Integration in Asia: Adopting the Yuan and Other Options
[Thesis]
Wenwen Zhang
Karras, George
University of Illinois at Chicago
2014
136
Committee members: Lee, Jin Man; Officer, Lawrence H.; Pieper, Paul J.
Place of publication: United States, Ann Arbor; ISBN=978-1-321-68619-7
Ph.D.
Economics
University of Illinois at Chicago
2014
This study examines the macroeconomic losses and gains of various types of monetary integration in Asia, including adopting the Chinese yuan as a common currency for 47 Asian economies. Using data from 1979 to 2011, I find that inflation bias and business cycle synchronization with China vary substantially across countries. The estimated losses and gains from the adoption are often positively related, a relationship that appears to have strengthened over time. However, a net gain comparison is feasible for individual countries. In particular, by dividing sample economies into two groups East Asia and Other Asia, the empirical results suggest that Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam are countries that will gain more and lose less from adopting the yuan than the others in my sample, so that they are the most promising candidates. I also investigate gains and losses for these Asian countries of adopting the yen or the U.S. Dollar. I find that the U.S. Dollar is a better choice for Bangladesh, India, Cambodia, Iraq, Israel, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines, United Arab Emirates, and Armenia than the yuan, while the yen is not considered as a promising common currency because of the Japanese deflation during the recent period.
Economics; Commerce-Business
Social sciences;Monetary union;Optimum currency area;Yuanization