1. The Meese-Rogoff Puzzle 2. A Selective Survey of Subsequent Studies 3. Basic Methodology, Data and Results 4. Alternative Measures of Forecasting Accuracy 5. Stochastic Movements in the Underlying Parameters 6. Model Misspecification 7. The Effect of Non-linearities 8. Simultaneous Equation Bias 9. Sampling Errors 10. Modelling Expectations 11. Concluding Remarks
For the past 30 years international monetary economists have believed that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting as a result of the 1983 paper written by Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff.