Making sense of the world -- Counterfactual thought experiments -- Franz Ferdinand found alive: World War I unnecessary -- Leadership and the end of the Cold War: did it have to end this way? / coauthored with George W. Breslauer -- Scholars and causation 1 / coauthored with Philip E. Tetlock -- Scholars and causation 2. Experiment 4, instrument 1: unmaking American tragedies -- If Mozart had died at your age: psycho-logic versus statistical inference -- Heil to the chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and fascism